The 2024 election looks to be very close. Just a few electoral votes are up for grabs. Census Bureau “errors” in the 2020 population counts give the Democrats a big head start in the race to 270 electoral votes.
Most of the 538 votes in the electoral college are in states that are solidly red or blue. According to the website 270toWin, there are only 77 of the 528 electoral votes in the six states that are up for grabs.
The small number of votes in the battleground states means that every electoral vote matters a lot.
Census Bureau “errors” in the 2020 count—which massively favored the Democrats—could give Biden the winning edge in the 2024 election.
The figure below from 270toWin has the electoral votes held by each state. Swing states are in tan.
A bit on Census “errors” and then we’ll look at some scenarios where Census errors prove decisive.
Census Errors and Congressional Reapportionment
The Constitution requires that seats in the House of Representatives be apportioned among the states based on population. The population of each state is determined by the decennial census count. The more people that live in a state, the more seats in the house of Representative.
The number of electoral votes that each state has in Presidential elections is the sum of the number of Senators (2) plus the number of members of the House of Representatives. The more seats in the House of Representatives, the more electoral votes.
In 2022, the Census Bureau announced that it had made major mistakes in the 2020 census count.
The mistakes provided Democrats an electoral vote and Congressional representation windfall.
Interestingly, the announcement of the errors in the 2020 count was made after seats had been reapportioned. As a result, the errors are baked into Congressional apportionments through 2032 and the 2024 and 2028 Presidential elections.
A very convenient “error” indeed by the Democrat-controlled Census Bureau.
The Wall Street Journal charged that the Census Bureau rigged the 2020 census in favor of the Democrats. The Census Bureau’s refusal to provide an explanation of the source of the errors also suggests that there was something nefarious underfoot.
The figure below shows the effect of Census “errors” on Congressional representation and the number of electoral votes from each state.
Census Tips the Scale for Biden
The figure below from the American Redistricting Project shows the effect of Census “errors” on the number of electoral votes assigned to each state.
Had the 2020 Census count been accurate four reliably red states would have gained seats: Texas and Florida would each have gained 3 and Montana and North Carolina gained 1 each for a total of 8.
However, two red states—Ohio and West Virginia—would have lost one seat.
The net result is that the Republican candidate would have had six more electoral votes—and the Democrats six less–heading in to the 2024 election.
Now consider how pivotal those six electoral votes are in a close election.
Assume that Trump wins all of the red and pink states in the figure at the top. That gives Trump 235 electoral votes. Then add in the toss-up states in the West and South: Georgia (+16), Arizona (+11) and Nevada (+6).
If Trump wins Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, that gives Trump an additional 33 electoral votes or a total of 268. Two short of victory. Result: Biden wins by 2.
To win, Trump would have to pick off one of the “blue wall” states in the North—Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania.
Now assume that the Census Bureau hadn’t made such fortuitous (for the Democrats) mistakes with the 2020 census count. With the six additional electoral votes that should have been allocated to the solidly red states, Trump would win with 274 electoral votes.
Or consider what would happen if Trump lost Arizona and Nevada but wins Georgia and Michigan—both states with a large population of working class voters. The result: Trump gets 266 electoral votes, Biden gets 272. Biden wins again.
But if the Census had not made such a fortuitous mistake (from the Democrat point of view) with the 2020 census, Trump would have 5 additional electoral votes in his column (Michigan would have lost 1) which would give Trump the election with 271.
A Pattern of Election Interference?
Had this been an isolated incident it may well have been dismissed as an isolated administrative mistake. However, in recent decades, the Census, like everything in America, has become heavily politicized.
Both Republicans and Democrats recognize that how the count is conducted and the “errors” made have a significant impact on the outcome of Presidential elections and Control of Congress.
Had the “errors” not been made, Donald Trump would have a far easier path to the White House.
Had the “errors” not been made, Republicans would have had a much larger majority in the House of representative to work with.
There’s a pattern to the “errors” made in Washington—they all favor the Democrats.
It’s not just the census. Consider the treatment of Hunter Biden, or the loss of evidence that would exonerate Trump in the January 6 hearings, or the claim by Treasury and the Fed that inflation is merely transitory, or the claim that Ukraine is winning, and so on and so on and so on.
Republicans are right to be suspicious of the veracity of the 2020 Census count and outraged by the one-sided nature of Census errors.
If Census “errors” provide Joe Biden the advantage in the 2024 election, the outcome will reinforce doubts regarding the fairness of U.S. election processes and further divide an already heavily divided nation.